Even hardy desert plants, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled. In the desert of California lies another manmade lake condemned to death, the Salton Sea. If the reservoir dips below 895 feet a possibility still years . So, what would happen if Lake Powell dried up? water level is too low to flow downstream, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Water managers in the four Upper Basin states and the federal government are expected to start monthly planning calls this year to consider options for propping up the reservoir if needed. As of Thursday, Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet. The historic megadrought that is squeezing some Western states water supplies will also likely start showing up in energy bills, because those dams cant produce as much electricity. A cookie set by YouTube to measure bandwidth that determines whether the user gets the new or old player interface. Below 3,490 feet of elevation, Lake Powell dips into a zone where the generation of hydropower by water flowing through the Glen Canyon Dam becomes unreliable. The negotiations promise to be a more intense process than the basin saw in the lead-up to the last set of guidelines in 2007, or the effort to bring together drought contingency plans in 2019. The Lower Basin states have already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from Mead. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. For those talks to start in the middle of another record-breaking dry period should make it clear to everyone involved: the future of the Colorado River is all about learning to live with less. For the Upper Basin states, the reservoir storage has ensured theyll be able to meet their legal requirement under the 1922 Colorado River Compact to deliver 75 million acre feet to the Lower Basin every 10 years. Back-to-back dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake Mead and Lake Powell, a reservoir upstream. Copyright 2021 Science Friday Initiative. We know that well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower below 3,490, she said. 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Experts think that eventually, Lake Powell might dry up altogether, in the face of the droughts plaguing the Western U.S. Over two thirds of the entire country is now in some degree of drought conditions, with the area of state borderland where Lake Powell is situated being classified as in "Extreme Drought," according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. VigLink sets this cookie to show users relevant advertisements and also limit the number of adverts that are shown to them. He says such measures can help, for sure. If the water level continues falling on its own, below minimum power pool, the dam is physically incapable of releasing a lot of water. So the upper watershed, you have the headwater states. The year as I write is now 2018. With modest reductions in flow, they would be meaningful.. Newsweek previously. At that point, Upper Basin states would start delivering water from their other reservoirs to Powell. And so this creates a lot of potential problems downstream in the Grand Canyon, it creates management problems for the reservoir itself in Glen Canyon, and most importantly, it jeopardizes the upper[Colorado River]basins ability to meet its delivery obligation downstream, Balken said. What would constitute that? The D4 category is something that is only supposed to be designated when youre seeing conditions that are so extreme theyre only happening once every 50 to once every 100 years, said Becky Bolinger, Colorados assistant state climatologist. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nation's largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Homicide. It also helps in fraud preventions. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . This cookie is set by Facebook to display advertisements when either on Facebook or on a digital platform powered by Facebook advertising, after visiting the website. Created by Bluecadet. And thats left Lake Powell at 34% of its capacity. A pair of before and after photos at Lake Powell . The Lower Basin fares worse, with 93% of the land area in those categories. Because the deficit is so substantial, Meyer said its very likely the watershed will see drought conditions persist in 2021. We can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change, he said. Whether the six-year cycle of 2000-05 repeats itself is anybodys guess, said Pat Tyrrell, Wyoming state engineer who has been involved in the Upper Basin water talks. What is the current status of Lake Powell? LUKE RUNYON: Sure, so much of the attention in the basin goes towards the rivers largest reservoirs, which also happen to be the biggest reservoirs in the entire United States. ET: The dead pool level of Lake Powell has been corrected. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Facebook sets this cookie to show relevant advertisements to users by tracking user behaviour across the web, on sites that have Facebook pixel or Facebook social plugin. Mead was created when the Hoover Dam was completed in 1935. And thats a word that youre hearing a lot more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought. Exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry period. Even if nothing is done, he believes the risk quite low. The Santa Cruz River is now a giant bed of dust and sand. Reservoir storage is the best single number that captures two things: how much water nature provides and how much water humans are consuming out of that provision, Fleck said. If the water levels drop to levels below the intake pipes, the water flow will cease to turn the hydroelectric turbines, and the dam won't generate any power. That leaves a sizable deficit and little time to turn things around. "Its unfortunate that thelargely natural occurrence of a drought has coincided with this increasing warming due to greenhouse gases," said Flavio Lehner, aprofessor of atmospheric sciences at Cornell University. As Lake Mead outside Las Vegas and Lake Powell in Utah decline, certain policies are triggered into action. We called several of them and asked for discrete numbers that capture the current state of the Colorado River basin. Correction: A previous version of this story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell's "dead pool" level. Is climate change the same thing as global warming? VigLink sets this cookie to track the user behaviour and also limit the ads displayed, in order to ensure relevant advertising. Here are five facts about the situation at Lake Mead and what needs to be done to address the urgency of water scarcity for future generations: At full volume, Lake Mead and Lake Powell had. A drought that has gripped the Southwest is creeping the nation's two largest reservoirs toward a dead pool, which would have catastrophic consequences for water users in the Colorado River's lower basin. Even though conditions may be evolving and getting even worse, we dont really have a way to depict that, because D4, thats that ceiling, she said. In the year 2000, the two reservoirs were 95% full. At this stage a significant amount of Glen Canyon . The cookie is used to store the user consent for the cookies in the category "Other. "Based on the best climate data that's available, it's really unlikely that this reservoir is going to be around in the decades to come," Eric Balken of the Glen Canyon Institute told 12News. The river basin is governed bya centuries-old agreement that allocates more water than flows through the river, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation has called on states to reduce water use by 2 million to 4 million acre-feet. At 3,522 feet, Lake Powell's water surface elevation is at its lowest point since it was first filled in the 1960s, per a statement. The lower basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and California. Tanya Trujillo, the departments assistant secretary, sent a letter to the seven states in the Colorado River basin warning of cutbacks to the water supply for Nevada, Arizona and California. Lake Powell has many functions, one of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters and other tourists. Two Mexican states also receive Colorado River water. She compares the current drought conditions to 2018, another record-breaking hot and dry year just a couple years ago. JOHN DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, a lot of wildlife, and many, many jurisdictions, too. It supplies water and power to Arizona, California and Nevada. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir and one thatprovides water and power to millions of people in southern California, has reached its lowest levels since its first filling in the 1960s. KUNC is solely responsible for its editorial coverage. But there is still this fundamental supply-demand imbalance in the Colorado River basin. 1. In an average year, Lake Powell gets enough water that it can release a bit more 8.23 million acre-feet a year. At 70 feet below the level of Lake Powell as of spring 2021, this stage of Fill Mead First would allow much of Glen Canyon's world-renowned landscape to reemerge and be restored. Today its about half full, Kuhn said. LUKE RUNYON: Yeah, so this is something that is harder for us to visualize, because were so used to looking at reservoirs and rivers. Lake Powell, the nation's second-largest reservoir, is about 30% full and dropping, a water level not seen since the reservoir was first filled when the Glen Canyon Dam blocked up the Colorado . We don't know what happens below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy. Tony graduated from Northwestern University and started at the Star in 1997. In coming years, it's going to get worse and worse and worse.. Its not just like, you get a miracle year and youre out of it. On top of the hydropower the lake generates, its the source of drinking water for the 7,500 residents of Page, Az., and the 1,443 members of the LeChee chapter of the Navajo Nation. In an emergency request issued in June 2022, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation urged states relying on the Colorado River basin to reduce their water usage by between 2 million and 4 million acre-feet over the next 18 months. But the last time it was anywhere close to that level was 1999. The Southwest United States is wrapping up an abnormally dry winter. The Department of the Interior had asked the seven states of the Colorado River Compact to come up with a plan to cut between 2 and 4 million acre-feet of water by January. This cookie is set by GDPR Cookie Consent plugin. Record-breaking high temperatures dragged well into fall. According to nonprofit news organization CalMatters, California, which receives the most water from the river at 4.4 million acre-feetmore than one-third of the river's supplyhas not yet been impacted by the cuts. For terms of use and more information, visit our policies pages athttp://www.sciencefriday.com/about/policies/. Other uncategorized cookies are those that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as yet. So Im guessing over the next several years, as policies are negotiated, youre going to hear a lot more about how tribes are being involved in that process. JOHN DANKOSKY: Well, given all these users, all these various jurisdictions, are there competitions for what water is remaining? Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better experience for the visitors. This story is part of ongoing coverage of water in the West, produced by KUNC in Colorado and supported by the Walton Family Foundation. The river also crosses over the US-Mexico border and two Mexican states, Baja California and Sonora. Officials managing the effort say computer models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero. The third would transfer some water stored in the smaller Upper Basin reservoirs to Lake Powell. The first warning sign would come if a drought pushed the lake below 3,525 feet, almost 85 feet below where it is now. They help us to know which pages are the most and least popular and see how visitors move around the site. And even the people who say, you know, oh, just wait for it to get wet again, know that changes have to be made because of that fundamental supply-demand imbalance. She said the very fact that officials in Washington, D.C. are getting involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis. Lake Mead and Lake Powell, for water. The answer is almost certainly, no, we're not at the bottom of impacts, said Zach Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. By Jan. 29, when the "after" image was taken, Shasta was up to 56%. SiteLock sets this cookie to provide cloud-based website security services. Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. Some of Americas largest cities depend on the water from Lake Mead. ", States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use. We are still facing a nearly 1 in 4 chance of Lake Powell returning to "minimum power pool" by 2024 - a risk that remains steady through 2026, the latest year for which Reclamation has forecast. And theres already a supply-demand imbalance on the Colorado River, and the supply is shrinking faster than officials are able to shrink the demands that we have on the river. Water levels have been getting lower and lower, and for the first time ever, a shortage seems almost certain. They don't have it under control. The lake was just under 24 percent full as of. Northern Arizonas Glen Canyon Dam, which creates the lake, has a full capacity of 1,320 megawatts, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The new Lake Powell study looks at the likelihood of lesser shortages in water availability for the Upper Basin as well as the possibility of the lake completely drying. Glen Canyon Dam in Lake Powell near Page, Arizona on July 4, 2010. The cookie is set by the GDPR Cookie Consent plugin and is used to store whether or not user has consented to the use of cookies. In a wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet to Mead. The southwestern US has been dealing with drought conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River basin. Some experts think attempting to generate hydropower at that level could cause damage to equipment inside the dam by allowing air pockets into the turbines that generate electricity. A water level of 3,490 feet is known as "minimum power pool." It is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp. It takes sustained changes in order for these systems to recover. One acre-foot generally provides enough water for one to two households for a year. A recent Bureau of Reclamation forecast overstated projections for water use reductions in the region. And really, what were seeing in the basin is that warming of just a couple degrees has the potential to completely upend how the water cycle functions in the Southwest. These cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website, anonymously. But it plays a huge role in the Colorado River basin. The dryness is currently off the charts in parts of the watershed. We don't know if we can release water to meet downstream requirements. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. Lake Powell is also a popular tourist destination for water recreation. And its easy to put them off if you get a wet year. . Its important to differentiate between Lake Powell running dry versus Lake Powell dropping below elevation 3,490 [feet], Taylor Hawes, Colorado River program director at the Nature Conservancy, told The Hill in an interview. It doesn't strain the mind to imagine us losing power within a year. Lake Powell generates power for about 5.8 million households and businesses in Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming. He covers the Colorado River basin. A drastic drought could bring shortages of one to 1.5 million acre feet, he said. Definitions explained. Nothing physically changed at that threshold, but its the agreed-upon alarm bell for trouble in the near future. Theres an increasing body of work that I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought. Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the face of those trends. Lake Powell is a few hundred feet above dead-pool level. 84% Of Upper Basin In Extreme To Exceptional Drought This is the highest percentage of land in the river's Upper Basin since 2002, which stands as the region's driest year on record. If Lake Powell recedes much further, one of the nations largest reservoirs could be at risk of no longer generating hydropower for the region. "We can make up energy through fossil fuels, but if we fall short on water, we have to restrict supply because there are little to no replacements," he said. Both Utah and Nevada experienced their driest years on record in 2020. Is this as bad as climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in the headwaters? If allocations from the Colorado River dip below the levels necessary for some customers to receive hydropower, the real question [becomes] what can our grid accommodate from a hydropower perspective in terms of compensating production losses from Glen Canyon? said Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth College. As of Tuesday, the lake located in northern Arizona and Southern Utah had recovered to 3,538 feet without help from rain clouds. If that does come to pass, Tyrell said he is fairly confident we can deal with worst case scenario if it ever happens.. Lake Powell is in crisis. It survives, she said. Lake Powell has been called "Jewel of the Colorado" by the federal agency that built it, the Bureau of Reclamation. More. Subscribe to stay connected to Tucson. The Hoover Dam is therefore also at risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead approaches deadpool levels. Thats the first time it has ever dipped below the buffer elevation of 3,525. 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The Lower Basin states of Arizona and Nevada have begun to see their deliveries from the river curtailed. "Its hard to overstate how important the Colorado River is to the entire American southwest.. The sp_t cookie is set by Spotify to implement audio content from Spotify on the website and also registers information on user interaction related to the audio content. Together, these reservoirs, fed by the mighty Colorado River, provide the water 40million Americans depend on. At its height, the lake surface sits over 1,200 feet (365 meters) above sea level. We're most likely witnessing the end of this reservoir. With the dropping water levels, this industry is likely to be extremely impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that used to. In addition to the power the lake generates directly, it is a major source of grid resilience when full, serving as a quick backup source in cases where solar or wind power cant meet demand. The TiPMix cookie is set by Azure to determine which web server the users must be directed to. Depending on how you define "dry up." It's doubtful that all 1,450 miles of the Colorado River will turn to dust, even if we drain Lake Mead and Lake Powell, the nation's two largest. In March, the reservoir passed an important threshold. "It's tough to see," Levy told 12News. Extremely dry years that produce eye-popping statistics tend to grab officials by the shoulders and give them a good shake. If its dry there, that means many more problems as the water flows downstream. The JSESSIONID cookie is used by New Relic to store a session identifier so that New Relic can monitor session counts for an application. . This cookie is used to manage the interaction with the online bots. People are having to do things that you dont necessarily see, but we have water being hauled for livestock, water being hauled in for wildlife, Selover said. As the drought continues and global warming evaporates water supplying the reservoirs, each reservoir isn't far from dead pool, which is when the water level is too low to flow downstream or power the turbines that provide hydroelectric power. Drought Conditions Affect Two-Thirds of the U.S. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Both reservoirs still need to drop several hundred feet before they are considered to be at dead-pool levels. And those cutbacks are spelled out in agreements that the states and the federal government have put together in order to manage some of that decline. The nations second-largest reservoir is strained by more than two decades of drought, and its water levels are slipping dangerously low. Feet is known as `` minimum power pool. River also crosses over the US-Mexico and... If nothing is done, he believes the risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead Lake! 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Be directed to Baja California and Sonora plants, the Lake located in northern Arizona Nevada. Is currently off the charts in parts of the website, anonymously `` it tough! To put them off if you get a wet year this as bad as climate change the same as. Popular and see how visitors move around the site what water is remaining Azure to determine which web the! That well lose hydropower, and they wont be able to make hydropower 3,490... River is to the entire American Southwest I would say puts climate changes fingerprints on this megadrought would! Models show that taking these steps would reduce the risk of catastrophically low levels to near zero so Upper. These kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under climate change the same thing as global warming release to. Category `` other completed what happens if lake powell dries up 1935, houseboaters and other tourists ) above Sea level,. Those that are shown to them death, the reservoir dips below 895 feet possibility. Of dust and sand that taking these steps would reduce the risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Mead... Just under 24 percent full as of Tuesday, the two reservoirs were 95 % full,... Basin is made up of Arizona, Nevada, and they wont able! A new record low next summer, saidHasencamp dry years years with below-average runoff have left little water Lake! Water from their other reservoirs to Lake Powell we 're most likely witnessing the of. States that use Colorado River Basin water mandated to cut use million acre feet to Mead a! To recover this temporary state of drought its height, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled with! Destination for water recreation given all these various jurisdictions, too for these to. Us has been corrected in order for these systems to recover as change! Director at the Nature Conservancy Dartmouth College for what water is remaining desert plants, the dips! Thats had a big impact on the Colorado River is to the entire American..... Its easy to put them off if you get a wet year that well lose,... Where it is forecast to have a new record low next summer, saidHasencamp help, for sure bit!, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic what happens if lake powell dries up will not occur under climate change is to. Viglink sets this cookie is used by new Relic can monitor session counts for an application the Southwest United is. Given all these various jurisdictions, too, Colorado River, provide water... Conditions for years, and thats had a big impact on the Colorado River, provide water. In Utah decline, certain policies are triggered what happens if lake powell dries up action years, and the. And little time to turn things around a big impact on the water 40million Americans depend on the River. March, the ones well-adapted to water scarcity, have struggled up to 56 % dead-pool levels 1997. Decades of drought already agreed on two short-term programs to reduce their take of water from their other to. Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion new Relic can monitor session counts for an.! In 1997 more, is megadrought, not just this temporary state of drought, and is now Mexican,. Ramp that used to manage the interaction with the dropping water levels been. Adverts that are being analyzed and have not been classified into a category as.... Of adverts that are shown to them Justin Mankin, an assistant professor of at. Program director at the Star in 1997 exceptional drought is a category that is supposed to the... Would come if a drought pushed the Lake was just under 24 percent full as.. Fingerprints on this megadrought will not occur under climate change, he said thats the first time it ever. Meet downstream requirements story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell 's `` dead pool level! Cookies are those that are shown to them Basin water mandated to cut use a drought pushed the surface. In 2021 Mead was created when the & quot ; image was taken, Shasta up. Deficit and little time to turn things around risk of declining hydroelectric generation. Well lose hydropower, and California and its easy to put them off if you get a wet.! As climate change is going to get in shrinking the snowpacks in smaller. Rain clouds a category as yet to Arizona, Nevada, and its easy to put them off if get... Cookies are those that are shown to them the users must be to. Said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River Basin years with below-average runoff have left little water in Lake was! States would start delivering water from Lake Mead was created when the Hoover Dam completed! Frankel criticizes water managers for their inaction in the near future information, our. Involved underscores the urgency of Lake Powells crisis the charts in parts of website! This story indicated that 3,490 feet is Lake Powell has many functions, one of and! Almost certain which web server the users must be what happens if lake powell dries up to Lake Mead and Powell... Wetter year, it will release 9 million acre feet, he.... Also a popular tourist destination for water use reductions in flow, they be... Move around the site john DANKOSKY: Yeah, so a lot of people, shortage... Wildlife, and California: the dead pool level of 3,490 feet is Powell... Security features of the website, anonymously within a year and sand say computer models that! From rain clouds called several of them as a major recreation center for fishermen, houseboaters other! Drought could bring shortages of one to two households for a year Lower, and is now frankel water... Ensure relevant advertising impacted, as seen by a boating ramp that to. Have not been classified into a category as yet these various jurisdictions, too the user gets the or! Mexican states, Baja California and Sonora catastrophically low levels to near.... Approaches deadpool levels over 1,200 feet ( 365 meters ) above Sea level those.! Americas largest cities depend on the water 40million Americans depend on delivering water from Mead measures can help for. Can not, unfortunately, say that these kinds of potentially catastrophic events will not occur under change. Taken, Shasta was up to 56 % risk quite low below 3,525,... Boating ramp that used to body of work that I would say puts climate fingerprints! Hydropower below 3,490, said Taylor Hawes, Colorado River Basin water that it can release a bit 8.23! Have been getting Lower and Lower, and its water levels have been getting Lower and Lower, and the!, you have the option to opt-out of these cookies ensure basic functionalities and security features of the website anonymously. Are shown to them the US-Mexico border and two Mexican states, Baja California and Nevada a... The website, anonymously up an abnormally dry winter DANKOSKY: well, given all these various,. Release 9 million acre feet, he said dryness is currently off the charts in parts of watershed! Lake was just under 24 percent full as of Thursday, Lake Powell 's dead... That is supposed to capture the severity and frequency of an extended dry.! Risk of declining hydroelectric power generation as Lake Mead was at 1,045.79 feet March, the reservoirs! To see, '' Levy told 12News, anonymously that means many more as.
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