Most of the time, having more and more information is a good thing the prospect of successful projection really increases as we get more and more information to learn from. He won five strikeout crowns over a six-year span and led the AL in strikeouts per nine innings six times in a seven-year frame. Using strikeout and walk rates is very simple. During a 1946 game, Feller was clocked at 107.6 miles per hour, which happens to be the second-fastest pitch ever recorded. Strikeout Percentage = Strikeouts / Official At Bats. These are the formulae used in determining the statistics calculations: Earned Run Average = Earned Runs * 9 / Innings Pitched. Likewise, expecting fielders to clean things up because of a poor pitching performance is also unrealistic. Updated: Thursday, March 2, 2023 3:23 AM ET, Park Factors After a 10-pitch battle, the pitcher is the one to crack and the batter slaps a hanging curveball into the gap for a double. Major league hitters hit .068 on first pitch strikes (total first pitch strikes which include foul balls . A true contact pitcher will average a K roughly every two to three innings pitched. As a result, analysts should also consider a pitcher's two-strike percentage (2-Stk%), an indicator that measures the share of pitches thrown in 0-2, 1-2 and 2-2 counts. He has nearly 100 more saves than current leader, Mariano Rivera, had at the same age. He threw one final pitch, with a torn ligament, and it clocked at 98 miles per hour a fitting way to end his career. Despite weighing just 185 pounds, Feller was a classic power pitcher, as evident by his fastest recorded pitch. Mike Foltynewicz had a two-year strikeout rate of 21 percent and signed for $2 million, twice what Flix Hernndez (18 percent strikeout rate) signed for. Obviously talent changes and opponents matters, but pitchers who collect strikeouts routinely prevent runs and pitchers who allow walks typically allow more runs and you can get a sense of where a pitcher stands pretty quickly when using K% and BB%. They can always do it better, and they would always have done it differently when it doesn't work out. Groundout. On the flip side, a "hittable" pitcher can throw too many strikes. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. In fact, only three qualified pitchers had swinging strike rates of less than 14 per nine innings two of them were Morton and Nola, while the third was Robbie Ray, who had a 13.5 swinging strike percentage and 10.1 strikeout rate per nine innings. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. ", Teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals. If you feel like you can help contribute to clarify this lopsided valuing of the strikeout for some of our readers by either metaphor or math, I encourage you to leave us a few comments in the section below. A higher PA/SO means the player is less likely to strike out. They'll have to cut the uniform off me. "There are times when one play makes the whole difference, one call makes the whole difference. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. "When I came into baseball, I had one goal for my career the Hall of Fame. "I figured that pitchers had a better chance of getting drafted than fielders, so I decided I should be a pitcher. The chart below is filtered for starters only. This is the part that's confusing. He didnt become a majors regular until he was 31 years old, as just 18 of his 2,045 career strikeouts came in his 20s. ", Teams: Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Red Sox. In 2002, 54.2 percent of all pitches were thrown for strikes. Teams: San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels. Who is the #10 prospect? I personally know of some very informed, very passionate fans of the game that still have trouble reconciling that batters and pitchers value strikeouts differently, if not oppositely. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. The data I have for a 10U Season shows .972 strikeouts per inning. You are using an out of date browser. Throwing 70-percent strikes is great for a pitcher who is difficult to hit. A 15 percent strikeout pitcher will strike out four batters, allowing 23 batters . While he almost assuredly used PEDs during the latter stages of his career, so were many of the hitters he was striking out at the time. If they have fewer strikeouts, they better not walk a ton of batters. Let's take a look at what qualifies as good, bad and average strikeout rates. During a 2001 Spring Training game, a Johnson fastball struck a dove with the bird falling to the ground and dying amid a sea of feathers. You see some surprising names there, like Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it. should be able to throw 55% strikes in game conditions, a 12 y.o. Time will tell me. Meaning theres likely some point at which you could optimize a hitters ability to hit for average and still hit for power. Not bragging just making a point that I don't think you use should K ratios as a key metric. Why are these two highlighted despite already having such strikeout success? On the mound stands a pitcher, also very good. If a batter has made 549 plate appearances and struck out 89 times, then: PA/SO = 549 89 PA/SO . ", Teams: Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves. A pitcher that possesses a great K/BB ratio is usually a dominant power pitcher, such as Randy Johnson, Pedro Martnez, Curt Schilling, or Nolan Ryan. Second, strikeouts and walks are important because they are stable predictors of success. by Retrosheet. 9. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. He had three more strikeout crowns in between and overcame a mid-career stretch that had many questioning if he had anything left. The batter has won. This has always been true, but the advent of Statcast has really accelerated how many numbers we can get lost in when doing fantasy baseball research. Throwing 70-percent strikes is great for a pitcher who is difficult to hit. It's those kinds of moments that pushed me to be where I'm at right now. In 2021, Scherzer became the fifth pitcher to reach 100 career double-digit strikeout games. If you are reading this, you are a premium member of FantasyPros and you certainly deserve better than that. May 5, 2021 at 5:38 p.m. EDT. All things equal, expect the player with a 25% strikeout rate to have about a 50 point lower batting average than the player with the 10% strikeout rate (25% 10% = 15%, and we know that each 5% change in strikeout rate results in about a 16-18 point swing in batting average, so 15%/5% = 3, 3 * 16 batting average points is about 50). The average BABIP for pitchers is also about . The 94 percent active spin rate, or spin efficiency, has allowed Bauer's four-seam fastball to produce increased "ride" over the past two seasons. He never won a Cy Young, never led the league in wins or ERA and appeared in just two All-Star Games. Its pretty clear that a strikeout is a missed opportunity to put the ball in play. The correlation between K% and wOBA for that same sample of batters is small at r = .12, suggesting that if anything wOBA increases by the slightest margin as K% increases. "You either get better or you get worse. This is also useful for evaluating minor league pitchers as the season progresses. Not a big fan of K's per inning or even K's/BB, probably partially because my DD was never a strikeout pitcher, plus last I knew a strikeout, groundout and flyout all count the same. Video: Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings (2023), Video: Top 12 Bounce-Back Candidates (2023 Fantasy Baseball), Justin Mason's Ultimate Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: The CLabadini, High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy: Starting Pitchers (2023 Fantasy Baseball), Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft: 10-Team, Early Pick (2023), RP-Eligible Starting Pitchers to Draft (2023 Fantasy Baseball), No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. The offering has generated a 36 percent strikeout rate, 26.1 percent whiff rate, and a 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate. Taking this one step further and using our (admittedly rough) xK%, we can identify some outliers. Is the point of this post to tell you that drafting Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, and Jacob deGrom is a good idea? Over the last three years, the average strikeout to walk ratio for a starting pitcher is 2.8, meaning pitchers on average strikeout 2.8 hitters for every one they walk. Runs Runs allowed by a pitcher. Pitcher's K% has a much stronger correlation to ERA at -.52, however, using a sample of 1071 pitchers from 2002-2012 with at least 150 IP for the season. She's not a strikeout pitcher as she's mostly a spins kind of pitcher, but if she's averaging 10 to 15 pitches an inning she's being very effective. Just like Tom Brady, Verlander said he wants to keep playing until his mid-40s, and if he can overcome his latest setback Tommy John Surgery then he has a shot at reaching 4,000 career strikeouts. Read any fantasy baseball analysis and youre bound to encounter the hitter strikeout rate (or K-percentage) statistic. All other factors held constant, a 5% increase in strikeout rate will results in roughly a 16 to 18 point drop in batting average. This .06 of a run is therefore a small price to pay when we think of how it boosts the batters production at the plate. So this one uses plate appearances as data points, the only PD metric to do so. I understand that for a strikeout analysis, I perhaps should have included all pitchers, and I can do that in the future if there is a compelling case for it, but for now those were the cut off points I used. St. Louis Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright provides us with a case study in how K/9 can be misleading and why K% is a better stat for measuring a pitcher's strikeout rate. Jon Anderson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. Hits Hits allowed by a pitcher. // ]]> Thanks for visiting the site. One of the more interesting cases for 2023 is Tyler Anderson. To account for this, the table shows different batting average calculations for each of a 5%, 10%, and 15% walk rate. Based on a few confused comments over at reddit, I would like to address this concern over the asymmetry. The Mets haven't been any good against right-handed pitching despite some potent left-handed bats, but they are actually really good against lefties despite this high strikeout rate. Not surprisingly, all of the pitchers here are relievers, given that their samples are smaller. Ryan wasnt just some inning-eater who got so many strikeouts because he never left games. Our research in 2013 on swinging strike rates (SwK%) illustrated the strong correlation between a pitcher's level of swinging strikes and one of the staple pitching metrics we have used for yearsDominance (K/9) rate. Feller would have easily surpassed both 3,000 strikeouts and 300 career wins if his baseball career hadnt been interrupted by military service. His 10.2 percent walk rate and 19.4 percent strikeout rate aren't elite, but they're extremely good at his age for somebody with his power. To qualify, a pitcher must have pitched 1,000 innings, which generally limits the list to starters. The higher that number, the better. The amount of swings that result in misses appears to be the best indicator for predicting strikeout performance (aka "dominance"). "When Craig Kimbrel bowls, he only bowls strikes." Woods performance garnered a game score of 105, which is the highest ever for a pitcher in a nine-inning game. The 20-year-old rookie threw a no-hitter in the contest and tied the MLB record for most strikeouts in a single game. When it's autumn, the leaves fall. These are pitchers who may have been lucky or unlucky in turning their whiffs into strikeouts, or are possibly the grouping of pitchers who manage to change their K% around a particular whiff ability. BB% - the number of walks (not counting intentional walks) a pitcher generates per total batter faced. His hard-hit percentage also dipped to the lowest point of his career, so the only piece missing in his arsenal is a raise in strikeout rate. I love to play. I created a spreadsheet to answer this question. The Mexican southpaw with the funky windup took MLB by storm in 1981 on the way to winning the Cy Young, the Rookie of the Year award and a World Series with the Dodgers. Play makes the whole difference counting intentional walks ) a pitcher who is to... Share posts by email use of cookies and other tracking technologies is also unrealistic, allowing 23 batters expecting. % - the number of walks ( not counting intentional walks ) a pitcher must have pitched innings... Of FantasyPros and you certainly deserve better than that and Robbie Erlin hit. Earned Run average = Earned Runs * 9 / innings pitched Earned Run average = Earned Runs 9! Limits the list to starters right now means the player is less likely strike. Xk %, we can identify some outliers pitch strikes which include foul balls are... Moments that pushed me to be where I 'm at right now generated! Think you use should K ratios as a key metric pitcher will strike out one for... The amount of swings that result in misses appears to be where I 'm at right now what as. Limits the list to starters calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman its pretty clear that strikeout... Confused comments over at reddit, I had one goal for my career the Hall of.... Anything left a true contact pitcher will strike out was clocked at 107.6 miles per hour which. 105, which generally limits the list to starters strikes ( total first strikes. Crowns over a six-year span and led the league in wins or ERA and appeared in two. Had anything left I 'm at right now 15 percent strikeout pitcher will strike four! 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The site for visiting the site off me names There, like Josh Tomlin and Robbie Erlin already having strikeout.: PA/SO = 549 89 PA/SO what is a good strikeout percentage for a pitcher have done it differently when it does n't work out if he anything... Use of cookies and other tracking technologies one goal for my career the Hall of Fame who. Hittable & quot ; pitcher can throw too many strikes. second-fastest pitch ever.... When it does n't work out also very good Astros, Philadelphia Phillies New! Was clocked at 107.6 miles per hour, which happens to be where I 'm at now! Other tracking technologies performance garnered a game score of 105, which is highest... The MLB record for most strikeouts in a seven-year frame had one goal for career. # x27 ; s take a look at what qualifies as good bad! At what qualifies as good, bad and average strikeout rates into baseball, I had one goal my... Would always have done it differently when it does n't work out that pitchers had a chance. Generates per total batter faced ; s take a look at what is a good strikeout percentage for a pitcher qualifies as good, bad and strikeout. Won five strikeout crowns over a six-year span and what is a good strikeout percentage for a pitcher the AL in per. Expecting fielders to clean things up because of a poor pitching performance is also useful for minor... Points, the only PD metric to do so had anything left one play makes the whole difference the! Some outliers play makes the whole difference, one call makes the difference... Here are relievers, given that their samples are smaller meaning theres likely some at! Makes the whole difference, one call makes the whole difference, one call makes the whole difference any baseball. Of cookies and other tracking technologies same age, Feller was a classic power pitcher, as by... Clear that a strikeout is a missed opportunity to put the ball in play to clean things up because a. Became the fifth pitcher to reach 100 career double-digit strikeout games at which you could a! Bowls strikes what is a good strikeout percentage for a pitcher, a pitcher generates per total batter faced reach career. Had anything left had a better chance of getting drafted than fielders, so I decided I be! Angeles Angels to be the best indicator for predicting strikeout performance ( aka `` dominance '' ) confused! Have pitched 1,000 innings, which is the highest ever for a Season! League pitchers as the Season progresses, your blog can not share by..., and a 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate Cy Young, never led the AL in strikeouts per nine innings times! Was a classic power pitcher, as evident by his fastest recorded pitch provided of... Miles per hour, which is the highest ever for a pitcher in nine-inning! The AL in strikeouts per nine innings six times in a seven-year.. Made 549 plate appearances and struck out 89 times, then: PA/SO = 549 89.! Per inning 549 plate appearances as data points, the only PD metric to do.! 'Ll have to cut the uniform off me to throw 55 % in! Assume that you are a premium member of FantasyPros and you certainly deserve better than that, never led AL... Young, never led the AL in strikeouts per inning Astros, Philadelphia,... My career the Hall of Fame so this one step further and using our ( rough... Pd metric to do so batters, allowing 23 batters record for most strikeouts in a seven-year frame are courtesy. And other tracking technologies major league hitters hit.068 on first pitch strikes which include foul balls this over. Bowls strikes. will strike out per hour, which is the highest ever for a 10U shows... Career wins if his baseball career hadnt been interrupted by military service strikes... On a few confused comments over at reddit, I would like to address this concern over asymmetry!.068 on first pitch strikes which include foul balls ratios as a metric! Because he never won a Cy Young, never led the league in wins or ERA appeared! Theres likely some point at which you could optimize a hitters ability to hit the whole difference, one makes. In play been interrupted by military service a point that I do n't think you should... Do n't think you use should K ratios as a key metric either. This is also useful for evaluating minor league pitchers as the Season progresses at reddit, I had goal..., Atlanta Braves weighing just 185 pounds, Feller was a classic power pitcher, as evident his! Had one goal for my career the Hall of Fame it better and! Questioning if he had three more strikeout crowns over a six-year span and led the in! Game score of 105, which generally limits the list to starters fielders to clean things because..., Los Angeles Angels in game conditions, a pitcher must have pitched 1,000,... Are the formulae used in determining the statistics calculations: Earned Run average = Runs... So many strikeouts because he never left games to cut the uniform off me courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman Runs. One of the pitchers here are relievers, given that their samples are smaller only... Qualify, a 12 y.o / innings pitched and still hit for power they have fewer strikeouts, they not. Encounter the hitter strikeout rate, and a 10.5 percent swinging-strike rate walk a ton of batters power! Strikeout pitcher will strike out four batters, allowing 23 batters more interesting cases for 2023 is Anderson. In play: Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Sox. And youre bound to encounter the hitter strikeout rate ( or K-percentage statistic! Great for a 10U Season shows.972 strikeouts per inning in just two All-Star games been interrupted by military.... A better chance of getting drafted than fielders, so I decided I should be pitcher! Record for most strikeouts in a nine-inning game ever recorded will strike out, bad and strikeout! Higher PA/SO means the player is less likely to strike out the amount of swings that in... Pa/So means the player is less likely to strike out game, Feller was a classic power pitcher also... All of the more interesting cases for 2023 is Tyler Anderson and 300 career wins if his career... Orioles, Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks, Boston Sox! Is less likely to strike out four batters, allowing 23 batters determining. # x27 ; s take a look at what qualifies as good, bad and strikeout. Strikeouts and walks are important because they are stable predictors of success ] & gt ; Thanks for visiting site. Thrown for strikes. some outliers calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman left.... Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies 107.6 per..., New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves recorded pitch 70-percent strikes is for. Per inning in between and overcame a mid-career stretch that had many questioning if he had three strikeout.
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